The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a rise in Nigeria’s debt-to- debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio to 33.1 per cent in 2027. The projections are contained in the fund’s latest Fiscal Monitor Report, launched on Wednesday in Washington DC at the ongoing IMF-World Bank spring meetings.
The Fund’s forecast followed President Bola Tinubu’s request that the national assembly approve external loans totalling $6 billion. According to the IMF report obtained by Channels Television, the rise to 33.1 per cent is from 32.3 percent expected in 2026. The country’s debt-to-gross domestic product for 2025 was put at 35.3 per cent.
Global gross government debt rose to nearly 94 per cent of GDP in 2025, noting that on current trajectories, it will reach 100 percent by 2029, “a level previously reached only in the aftermath of World War II”, the fund said. “Global debt-at-risk three years ahead now stands near 117 percent of GDP, with a gap of roughly 20 percentage points between the median projection and the right tail, underscoring heightened downside risks.
Several reinforcing forces could weigh on the fiscal outlook,” the IMF said. On April 15, the Debt Management Office (DMO) said Nigeria’s total public debt for federal and state governments rose to N159.27 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025.
The figure increased by N5.98 trillion from the N153.29 trillion recorded at the end of the third quarter (Q3) and N14.6 trillion higher than the N144.67 trillion booked in Q4 of 2024. IMF warned of a deteriorating fiscal outlook, despite the global economy showing resilience.
It noted that conflict in the Middle East could further strain government finances through higher food and fuel prices, tighter financial conditions, lower activity, and rising defence outlays. And if the conflict is prolonged, the organisation said global debt-at-risk could increase by an additional 4 percentage points, it warned.