The International Monetary Fund projects Nigeria's debt-to-gross domestic product ratio will climb to 33.1% by 2027, according to the fund's latest Fiscal Monitor Report released Wednesday in Washington D.C. during the IMF-World Bank spring meetings.
The projection marks an increase from the 32.3% ratio anticipated for 2026, and follows President Bola Tinubu's request that the National Assembly approve external loans totaling $6 billion. Nigeria's debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 35.3% in 2025.
On the domestic front, the Debt Management Office reported April 15 that Nigeria's total public debt for federal and state governments reached N159.27 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The figure represents a N5.98 trillion increase from the N153.29 trillion recorded in Q3 2025, and stands N14.6 trillion higher than the N144.67 trillion posted in Q4 2024.
Globally, gross government debt rose to nearly 94% of GDP in 2025, the IMF report noted. Under current trajectories, worldwide debt is expected to reach 100% by 2029, a threshold previously attained only in the aftermath of World War II.
"Global debt-at-risk three years ahead now stands near 117% of GDP, with a gap of roughly 20 percentage points between the median projection and the right tail, underscoring heightened downside risks," the IMF stated. "Several reinforcing forces could weigh on the fiscal outlook."
The fund specifically flagged geopolitical tensions as a potential amplifier of fiscal strain. Conflict in the Middle East could further pressure government finances through elevated food and fuel prices, tighter financial conditions, reduced economic activity, and escalating defense spending. If the conflict persists, the organization warned that global debt-at-risk could rise by an additional 4 percentage points.