Profits from elevated oil and gas prices for developing-world producers, including Nigeria, are likely to prove temporary, the head of the United Nations trade agency warned Tuesday, as geopolitical tensions reshape global energy markets and inflate the cost of moving goods across seas.
The caution from the International Trade Centre (ITC) follows the collapse of US-Iran peace negotiations and President Donald Trump's subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil flows. The military escalation sent crude prices surging around eight percent Monday, with both benchmark contracts briefly topping $100 a barrel before retreating sharply the following session.
Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director of the ITC, told Reuters in an interview that while the price spikes present a surface-level opportunity for exporters, the broader economic picture remains precarious. "Oil and gas could be secured from other places," she said, suggesting the situation was "not as dire" as headline price movements might suggest—though cost pressures on shipping and refined product imports could quickly erode any revenue gains.
The ITC identified a narrow group of nations positioned to benefit from the surge in crude revenues: Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Angola, and Libya were named as potential beneficiaries. However, the agency cautioned that these gains would remain constrained, noting that all but Kazakhstan continue to import refined petroleum products despite their status as crude exporters. Nigeria, which has seen its domestic refineries operate well below capacity, falls squarely into this camp—meaning revenue from higher oil prices must be weighed against the cost of bringing finished fuels back into the country.
Natural gas markets present a similarly mixed outlook. Countries such as Algeria, Malaysia, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan may see some lift from higher gas prices, the ITC noted, though short-term supply expansion faces structural limits.
For Nigeria specifically, the timing presents a delicate balance. The Federal Government projected a crude oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel in its 2026 budget—a figure that current spot prices have already exceeded, potentially offering a short-term fiscal boost. But the International Monetary Fund, meeting alongside the World Bank for its Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., issued a simultaneous warning about the war's broader economic fallout.
The IMF downgraded Nigeria's 2026 growth forecast to 4.1 percent, citing war-related energy and supply shocks that are undercutting recovery across the region. Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the revision reflects the pressures facing energy-importing nations, where higher commodity values at the wellhead fail to offset the cost of importing finished products and the soaring price of maritime freight.
Industry observers note that the Hormuz blockade adds a dimension that pure price spikes do not capture. With tanker insurance premiums rising and alternative routing adding days to voyage times, the effective cost of Nigeria's petroleum trade is climbing even as export revenues appear stronger on paper.