ASTANA – Central Asia’s best defense against challenging and fragmenting global order lies not in choosing a geopolitical camp but in deeper regional coordination, diversified partnerships and stronger international rules, top experts said during an Aug. 31 discussion in Astana.
The five Central Asian states are unlikely to become a separate pole in the emerging global order. However, their geography, resources and growing cooperation give them an opportunity to shape how that order operates provided they can turn regional coordination into lasting institutions and economic resilience.
The expert discussion brought together Nargiza Murataliyeva, an associate professor at the American University of Central Asia in Bishkek, Dauren Aben, deputy director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies and Akram Umarov, first vice rector of the University of World Economy and Diplomacy in Uzbekistan.
The panel followed the launch of German political analyst Marc Saxer’s book, “Geopolitical Conflict in the Wolf World: Great Power Competition and the Illiberal Revolt against the Liberal Order.” Saxer uses the term “wolf world” to describe a fragmented international system in which institutions are weakening, geopolitical competition is intensifying and power increasingly determines outcomes.
For Central Asia, that challenge is particularly notable. The region sits between Russia and China, borders Afghanistan and is surrounded by ongoing conflicts. It also depends heavily on external markets, infrastructure and technology. At the same time, demand for its critical minerals, uranium, energy resources and transit routes has increased its strategic value.
The experts emphasized that Central Asia should no longer be viewed merely as an arena in which outside powers compete or an object of the so-called great game that many Western experts use extensively. Dauren Aben (in the left). Photo credit: FES “For a long time, we have been considered through the prism of great-power rivalry: who has the greatest influence, whether China is replacing Russia and so on,” Aben said.
“All of these are legitimate questions, but they are increasingly insufficient.” Murataliyeva stressed that discussions about Central Asia did not put the region at the forefront. Some experts referred to it as a “buffer,” a “transit zone,” or a “place things pass through on the way somewhere more important.” Murataliyeva said that vocabulary has become obsolete as the five countries develop greater regional agency.
Since 2018, the consultative meetings of Central Asian heads of state, with the latest held in Cholpon-Ata in July, have created a form of cooperation distinct from conventional regional organizations. It can further serve as a model for other regions throughout the world.
“The five states have built something that doesn’t look like any existing regional organization. There is no supranational authority, no binding laws, no court, no commission, no pooled sovereignty. Decisions are made by consensus among presidents, and implementation is voluntary,” she said.
The results are tangible. Murataliyeva pointed to the reopening of borders, settlement of long-standing border disputes and the growing intraregional trade. This format has also made the region’s voice stronger and made it more recognizable to outside partners as a single negotiating counterpart.