The flow of Middle East energy trade is shifting again after Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked two tankers in the Red Sea, raising fears that shipping through the region could fall further. Lloyd’s List analysts tracking vessel movements and attack patterns in real time say the Red Sea has moved from a period of “gradual normalisation” back into acute uncertainty.
“I think the situation in the Red Sea, the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz has fundamentally changed, and we’re never going back to what it was before,” a senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List, Bridget Diakun, said. Diakun said shipping traffic through the Red Sea fell by about 60% during the height of the crisis.
Further attacks could push traffic down even more, although the impact will depend on how shipping companies assess the risks. “Everyone has different risk appetites, and people also adjust to the situation,” she said. That adjustment can also come from war fatigue.
As a conflict drags on, tanker owners and operators may eventually accept the risks of sailing through a danger zone, making war risk the new normal. “I do expect it to move in ebbs and flows depending on what’s happening at a geopolitical level,” Diakun said. Matthew Rajendra, a senior reporter at Lloyd’s List, said even vessels with no direct Saudi ownership or links could potentially be targeted if they are carrying Saudi crude.
Some commercial vessels, including tankers, are now publishing crew affiliations and nationalities through public tracking systems in an apparent effort to reduce the risk of attack. Lloyd’s List has also reported that a COSCO-owned vessel managed to pass through the Houthi blockade.
“Our team was able to get confirmation that COSCO was able to get clearance from the Houthis to get out of the Red Sea,” Rajendra said. “But this raises bigger questions, such as whether any payments may or may not have been made for this passage. It’s still unclear.” The Houthis have claimed responsibility for attacks on at least two Saudi-linked tankers.
One was the Ann Ciao, which was identified as the vessel reported hit by the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre. A second claimed attack on the tanker Layla has not been independently confirmed by Lloyd’s List.