ASTANA – Strategic investment in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route could more than triple trade along the route, cut travel times in half and create two million additional jobs by 2040, according to a new report published by the World Bank on Sept.
28. The route, also known as the Middle Corridor and referred to by the World Bank as the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, is emerging as an increasingly important trade link between Asia and Europe through Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Türkiye. The route combines rail, road and shipping across the Caspian and Black seas, connecting countries along the corridor with one another and with wider global markets.
Its position also gives it a broader role as an overland link between East Asia and Europe. Main corridors connecting Asia and Europe. Photo credit: World Bank The report identifies nine countries along the route: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Türkiye, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, with a combined population of nearly 200 million people.
Armenia is included even though it is not yet directly connected to the corridor, as physical links are expected to be developed in the 2030s, within the report’s 2023-2040 timeframe. The report projects that stronger transport links could raise GDP across the nine countries along the corridor by 3.3%.
This is equal to $58 billion at current levels of economic activity, as well as boost employment by 2.9%. Enabling investments by countries. Photo credit World Bank It identifies 16 priority infrastructure projects worth a combined $25.1 billion. Three-quarters are already underway or expected to begin soon, suggesting that a lack of infrastructure may no longer be the corridor’s biggest long-term constraint.
Kazakhstan accounts for several of the 16 priority projects identified in the report. They include the $1.4 billion Moiynty-Kyrgyz railway line, the $1.2 billion Bakhty-Ayagoz railway and border crossing, the $550 million Darbaza-Maktaaral railway, a $315 million Almaty bypass line, a $310 million expansion of Aktau Port and a $212 million upgrade of the Altynkol-Zhetigen railway.
Together, the projects are intended to expand rail capacity, ease bottlenecks around major hubs and strengthen Kazakhstan’s connections to both the Caspian Sea and markets to the east and south. An additional $30 billion will be required for what the report describes as “enabling” investments.
This includes better road and rail connections to local economies, logistics hubs and inland terminals that can speed up cargo movement. Investment is also needed in locomotives, railcars, cargo-handling equipment and digital systems to keep goods moving efficiently across the network.
With major projects already moving forward, the harder challenge will increasingly be how efficiently the route is managed and how well countries coordinate operations across borders. “Total trans-Caspian volumes are expected to increase by about 3.6 times, from 8.8 million tons in 2023 to 32.1 million tons by 2040.
The Eastern gateway, consisting of the main entry and exit points along the corridor’s eastern flank, is projected to grow at a similar pace, increasing from 28.5 million tons to 105.7 million tons, and the Western gateway is expected to expand from 12.1 million tons to around 35.0 million tons over the same period,” said the report.