The Ayre Index, launched at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda, places Kenya 22nd out of 56 Commonwealth countries. KENYA could unlock a Sh255 billion economic boost from artificial intelligence (AI) over the next decade, as a new Commonwealth study ranks the country ahead of its East African peer.
The top ranking is in youth readiness for the technology. The Ayre Index, launched at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda, places Kenya 22nd out of 56 Commonwealth countries, scoring 48.7 out of 100. Uganda follows at position 23 with 47 points, Tanzania ranks 25th with 45.5, while Rwanda is placed 47th with 38.1 points, highlighting Kenya's relative advantage in preparing young people for an AI-driven economy.
However, Kenya remains below the index's readiness benchmark of 53 points, which is attained by only 15 Commonwealth countries, signalling that the country still faces significant hurdles in translating digital progress into jobs and higher incomes. The research by the Ayre Think Tank, a research initiative that studies global and Commonwealth trends, estimates that AI could increase Kenya's gross domestic product (GDP) by $1.971 billion (about Sh255 billion) after 10 years under a moderate economic scenario.
The opportunity could rise to $2.991 billion (Sh387 billion) under an optimistic scenario, but fall to $952 million (Sh123 billion) if adoption and economic gains remain subdued. Kenya's projected moderate-case GDP gain is the third-largest among 41 Commonwealth countries below the readiness benchmark, behind Bangladesh and Pakistan.
The findings point to the potential of AI to create new businesses, improve productivity and expand employment opportunities for Kenya's 16.7 million young people aged between 15 and 29. “AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created.
But this is not a race that only the biggest or richest countries can win,” said Calvin Ayre, founder of the Ayre Think Tank. “What matters is giving young people the skills and the chance to get ahead, whether to start businesses, find jobs or build something for themselves.
Some Commonwealth countries are ahead, others have catching up to do. Nobody can afford to be complacent,” he said.