ASTANA – Kazakhstan's economy is entering a phase of tempered expansion, with growth projected to decelerate over the next two years as the nation's oil sector approaches a production ceiling and private demand softens, according to the Asian Development Bank's latest regional outlook.
The April 2026 edition of the Asian Development Outlook, presented April 10 in Astana, forecasts GDP growth of 4.8% for 2026, moderating further to 4.5% in 2027. This represents a notable pullback from the 6.5% expansion recorded in 2025, which marked the strongest economic performance in more than a decade.
Government investment and quasi-fiscal measures are expected to sustain momentum during this transition, though private consumption faces headwinds from constrained credit access, elevated taxation, and more measured gains in real wages.
Speaking at the ADO Launch Event, ADB Country Director Utsav Kumar underscored the country's starting position of relative resilience despite the projected slowdown.
The outlook carries elevated uncertainty stemming from developments in the Middle East. Projections were finalized in early March assuming rapid regional stabilization, but subsequent events have raised the probability of extended disruptions that could affect Kazakhstan through supply chain constraints, tighter global financial conditions, diminished demand from key trading partners, and import-driven inflationary pressure.
ADB analyst Sanzhar Kaldarov attributed much of 2025's robust growth to the Tengiz oil field's Future Growth Project, which drove total oil production to approximately 100 million tons. "Because of that, we see a huge increase in GDP output," Kaldarov noted, adding that the sector's expansion generated substantial spillover effects across related industries.
Inflation is expected to remain elevated throughout the forecast horizon, settling at 10.4% in 2026 and 9.5% in 2027, following 11.4% in 2025. Kaldarov identified utility tariff adjustments as a primary driver, with regulated energy prices rising around March and contributing significantly to overall price pressures.
Tax policy changes have compounded these dynamics. The implementation of a new budget and tax code—including an increase to the value-added tax—prompted businesses and consumers to accelerate purchases ahead of the changes, amplifying short-term demand and price increases.