ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s economic growth is set to ease in 2026 and 2027 as oil production approaches its peak and private demand weakens, according to the April 2026 edition of the Asian Development Outlook, released April 10 by the Asian Development Bank. ADB Country Director Utsav Kumar opens the ADO Launch Event on April 10 in Astana.
Photo credit: ADB Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow at 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, slowing from 6.5% growth in 2025. Momentum is sustained by ongoing government investment and quasi-fiscal support. At the same time, private consumption is expected to ease due to tighter lending conditions, higher taxes and more modest gains in real incomes.
GDP growth is projected to moderate in 2026 and slow further in 2027. Photo credit: ADB The outlook, however, is subject to elevated uncertainty. The projections are based on assumptions finalized in early March, including a scenario of early stabilization in the Middle East.
Since then, there has been a higher likelihood of more prolonged disruptions, which could impact Kazakhstan’s outlook through supply chain pressures, tighter global financial conditions, weaker demand in key trading partners and rising import-driven inflation.
Even so, Kazakhstan is entering this period of slower growth from a position of relative strength, according to ADB analyst Sanzhar Kaldarov. Sanzhar Kaldarov presents key highlights on Kazakhstan from the report. Photo credit: ADB Economic growth reached 6.5% in 2025, the highest level in more than a decade, largely driven by increased oil output.
A key factor was the ramp-up of the Future Growth Project at the Tengiz oil field, which pushed total production close to 100 million tons. “Last year, we saw the ramp-up of the Future Growth Project at the Tengiz oil field. As a result, total oil production in Kazakhstan reached almost 100 million tons.
Because of that, we see a huge increase in the GDP output,” he explained, adding that its effects extend beyond the sector itself, generating spillovers across related industries and supporting broader economic activity. According to the report, inflation is forecasted at 10.4% in 2026 and 9.5% in 2027, from 11.4% in 2025.
Analysts point to several factors contributing to the elevated inflation. “The major one is the utility tariff increases. Most utility prices in Kazakhstan are still government-regulated, and there was some adjustment around March, which contributed to overall inflation,” Kaldarov said.
Tax policy changes have also played a role. The introduction of a new budget and tax code, including a value-added tax (VAT) increase, led businesses and consumers to bring forward purchases, adding to short-term demand and price pressures.