Nigeria's total petrol supply climbed to 40.1 million litres per day (ml/d) in March 2026, according to figures released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), up from 39.5 ml/d recorded in February 2026. The modest increase of approximately 1.5 percent masks a more significant shift in the composition of supply reaching the domestic market, as the country's downstream sector continues to grapple with the implications of Dangote Refinery's evolving allocation strategy.
Dangote Refinery, Africa's largest single-site refinery with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, produced 48.2 ml/d in March 2026, operating at an impressive 93.62 percent capacity utilisation rate. Yet despite this high operational intensity, the refinery's contribution to Nigeria's domestic petrol supply fell to 34.2 ml/d, down from 36 ml/d in February and 40.1 ml/d in January 2026. This marks the third consecutive month of decline in the refinery's domestic supply share, prompting questions about whether output is being redirected toward export markets, contractual obligations to foreign buyers, or strategic stockpiling rather than serving the local market that has long been its primary revenue driver.
The gap left by Dangote's reduced domestic offtake has been progressively filled by a resurgence in imported petrol. Import volumes nearly doubled on a month-on-month basis, rising to 5.9 ml/d from just 3 ml/d in February 2026. The increase is particularly notable given that it occurred under constrained licensing conditions, with the NMDPRA issuing a limited number of import permits during the review period. The data indicates a measured re-entry by private sector importers, some of whom had scaled back operations in prior quarters due to foreign exchange pressures and regulatory uncertainty.
The supply dynamics carry direct implications for industrial consumers and logistics operators who depend on diesel and petrol derivatives. Dangote Refinery's high capacity utilisation paired with shrinking domestic supply share suggests that available spot volumes for independent marketers and industrial buyers remain tight. Meanwhile, rising import reliance exposes the downstream market to landed cost volatility driven by global refined product pricing and shipping freight rates. For Nigeria's manufacturing, transport, and construction sectors, this supply configuration complicates operational cost forecasting and maintenance scheduling for fuel-dependent operations. The NMDPRA factsheet underscores that while Nigeria's midstream and downstream sector retains substantial domestic refining capacity anchored by Dangote, the market is increasingly characterised by a divergence between installed capacity and actual domestic availability, a pattern that analysts expect to persist through the first half of 2026 as global oil market pressures continue to influence refinery economics and allocation decisions.