Finance Minister Wale Edun told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday that Nigeria's crude oil production has reached 1.8 million barrels per day, generating sufficient fiscal space to allow the government to extend targeted support to vulnerable households while continuing broader economic reforms. The remarks came on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group spring meetings in Washington.
Edun emphasized that rising crude output would bolster government revenue, foreign exchange reserves, and the overall fiscal position, creating what he described as much-needed breathing room. "It gives us that extra fiscal space within which to look at helping the vulnerable households at this time," he said. However, the minister was clear that any assistance would remain carefully targeted and would not extend to a return of broad untargeted fuel subsidies. "There is no thought of any return or retardation to broad untargeted subsidies," he added, signaling that subsidy discipline remains a cornerstone of the government's reform agenda.
On domestic energy supply, Edun credited the Dangote refinery with preventing the fuel shortages that have historically accompanied periods of macroeconomic strain. "We have managed to keep the pumps going and adequate supply of petroleum products, particularly petrol and diesel, and so forth, and even jet fuel," he said. The refinery, which began full operations in 2024, has transformed Nigeria's downstream energy landscape, reducing the country's dependence on imported refined products and providing a buffer against global supply disruptions.
The fiscal headroom created by higher oil output arrives against a backdrop of renewed inflationary pressure. A report released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed that consumer inflation in Nigeria rose for the first time in a year in March, ending a period of gradual disinflation. Headline inflation climbed to 15.38 percent in March 2026, a modest but notable increase from the 15.06 percent recorded in February. Economists are closely watching whether the uptick represents a temporary fluctuation or the beginning of a sustained acceleration in price growth.
Edun also addressed the potential impact of the Iran conflict on the global economy, cautioning that prolonged hostilities could weigh on growth worldwide. "The impact on growth can be minimal, but over time, if things drag on, it could lead to world recession," he said. For Nigeria, the resilience demonstrated by domestic crude output and refinery capacity provides a measure of insulation, though policymakers remain alert to secondary effects on commodity markets and investor sentiment.