NCBA said safeguarding gains in agricultural production would be critical in supporting exports and protecting foreign exchange earnings NCBA group managing director John Gachora. /HANDOUT Kenya’s economy is expected to grow by 4.8 per cent this year, supported by a recovery in industrial activity, expansion in the services sector and improving agricultural output, according to NCBA economic outlook.
The latest projection is slightly lower than what Central Bank of Kenya and National treasury had predicted. Despite the slightly positive outlook, geopolitical tensions, expensive energy and election-related uncertainty and changing global monetary conditions threaten the outlook for not only for this year but until 2027.
NCBA group managing director John Gachora said the economy had demonstrated resilience despite external shocks, prompting the bank to revise its 2026 growth forecast upwards from 4.6 per cent to 4.8 per cent. The revised projection, however, remains below the bank’s earlier forecast of 5.1 per cent, reflecting the economic disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and rising commodity prices.
“According to our in-house projections, we now expect output to close around 4.8 per cent in 2026. Given the uncertain external environment, we see economic growth for 2027 to be in the range of four to five per cent,” said Gachora. NCBA Group Director for Global Markets and Chief Economist Raphael Agung said growth would be primarily driven by industry and services, with agriculture expected to record a relatively stable performance and improve from previous levels.
He projected the economy would expand by 4.5 per cent in 2027, slightly slower than this year's expected growth of 4.8 per cent, as businesses and households adopt a more cautious approach to spending ahead of the elections. The projections point to a continued recovery in productive sectors, although the economy is yet to return to the growth levels needed to generate sufficient employment and significantly improve household incomes.
Agriculture remains an important source of growth, particularly through value chains such as coffee, tea, beef, rice and nuts, which are expected to benefit from efforts to increase production and improve farmer earnings.