Nigeria's reliance on imported petrol nearly doubled in March 2026, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery consolidated its position as the country's dominant fuel supplier.
The regulatory authority's March fact sheet, released this week, showed petrol import volumes surged to 5.9 million litres per day from 3.0 million litres per day in February—a month-on-month increase of 96.7 percent. The sharp uptick reflects renewed dependence on foreign supply even as domestic refining output continued to climb.
Local Supply Gains Ground
Domestic petrol supply rose from 30.5 million litres per day to 34.2 million litres per day during the same period, with the NMDPRA attributing the growth to increased contributions from local refiners. Overall total daily petrol supply edged up marginally from 39.5 million litres to 40.1 million litres, indicating that the import surge outpaced the modest gains in domestic production.
The Dangote refinery, which commenced operations as Africa's largest single-train refinery, operated at an average capacity utilisation rate of 93.62 percent in March 2026. The facility produced 48.2 million litres per day of Premium Motor Spirit, of which 34.2 million litres per day entered the domestic market. This single asset accounted for approximately 72.3 percent of Nigeria's total petrol consumption, estimated at 47.3 million litres per day that month.
Consumption Contraction and Pricing Pressures
The import surge unfolded against a backdrop of sharply contracting demand. National petrol consumption dropped from 56.9 million litres per day in February to 47.3 million litres per day in March, a decline of roughly 17 percent. Industry observers pointed to elevated pricing as the primary driver of demand destruction.
The Dangote refinery adjusted its ex-depot petrol price at least five times during the period, reaching N1,275 per litre in March. The successive price increases placed downward pressure on consumption volumes, particularly among price-sensitive consumers and small-scale businesses dependent on subsidised or lower-cost fuels.
Stock sufficiency metrics reflected tightening inventory conditions. Days of petrol sufficiency fell sharply from 30.7 days to 21.2 days, indicating that the combination of rising imports and declining consumption was insufficient to maintain previous inventory buffers.
Regulatory Policy and Import Licence Constraints
The NMDPRA has signalled growing concern over the limited number of import licences currently issued to downstream marketers. The regulator had previously tightened the issuance of new import permits, prioritising locally refined products and seeking to protect investments in domestic refining infrastructure following Dangote's market entry.
Industry sources have warned that continued restriction of import licences, combined with unpredictable domestic pricing, could create supply gaps in the event of refinery outages or sudden demand rebounds. The decline in stock sufficiency days to 21.2 has heightened these concerns, with some analysts questioning whether current inventory levels provide adequate margin for disruption.
In the diesel segment, the Dangote refinery produced 16.5 million litres per day of Automotive Gas Oil in March, with 2.2 million litres per day channelled to the domestic market. The remainder was allocated for export or held as strategic stock.