The International Trade Centre has issued a stark warning that fertilizer shortages stemming from the ongoing Iran conflict pose an immediate threat to food security across developing nations, with Sub-Saharan Africa facing particularly severe consequences.
Pamela Coke-Hamilton, Executive Director of the ITC, told Reuters that the disruption to fertilizer supplies represents the most pressing concern for agricultural stability in affected regions. "The more immediate issue is fertilizer, because that then affects food security and food security is always the basis for stability," she stated during an interview.
Supply Chain Crisis at the Strait of Hormuz
The ITC analysis reveals that approximately one-third of global urea production typically moves through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint now blockaded by Iran and the United States military forces. This transit disruption has severed supply routes that agricultural sectors across Asia and Africa depend upon for nitrogen-based fertilizers.
Coke-Hamilton emphasized the time-sensitive nature of agricultural planning, noting that the current crisis is causing farmers to miss critical windows for securing inputs ahead of planting seasons. "There are significant issues with respect to availability of fertilizers, and also there's a timeline for agriculture in terms of ensuring you have enough for the next harvest, which is being missed now," she said.
The United Nations announced Monday that diplomatic efforts are underway to negotiate a UN-led framework guaranteeing safe passage for fertilizer shipments through the contested strait.
Regional Vulnerability and Agricultural Impact
According to the ITC report, dependence on nitrogen fertilizers sourced from Gulf producers remains highest in several Asian and African developing economies, including Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. The impact analysis indicates that shortages typically result in reduced fertilizer application rather than altered planting schedules, with the most pronounced effects occurring in regions where agriculture relies heavily on seasonal rainfall patterns.
Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia face heightened vulnerability due to narrower planting windows, greater dependence on rain-fed cultivation, and increased sensitivity among smallholder farmers to input cost fluctuations. These factors combine to create conditions where even temporary supply disruptions can translate into significant yield reductions and food production shortfalls.
Alternative Supply Corridors and Market Shifts
The ITC identified potential relief through alternative suppliers, particularly in North Africa, where Egypt holds an estimated $1.6 billion in untapped export capacity and Algeria could provide an additional $1.3 billion in fertilizer shipments to fill supply gaps.
Meanwhile, the conflict's broader economic fallout presents mixed outcomes for commodity exporters. Countries such as Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Angola, and Libya may experience increased oil revenues from elevated crude prices, though the ITC noted these benefits would likely prove limited since all nations except Kazakhstan remain net importers of refined petroleum products.
Higher natural gas prices may benefit producers including Algeria, Malaysia, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, though short-term supply expansion capacity remains constrained.