ASTANA – The Adilet party was projected to receive around 72% of the vote in Kazakhstan’s inaugural election to the Kurultai on Aug. 23, according to three exit polls released at midnight on Aug. 24. Exit polls, which were announced during a live election night broadcast, also showed four other parties narrowly clearing the threshold for representation in the country’s new unicameral Parliament.
The seven parties contesting the election were Adilet, Respublica, the Auyl People’s Democratic Patriotic Party, the People’s Party of Kazakhstan, the Aq Jol Democratic Party, the Baytaq Green Party and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party. The three surveys put Adilet’s support between 70.7% and 72.3%, positioning the party for a commanding majority in the new 145-member unicameral Parliament.
The figures are preliminary and do not constitute official election results. According to the Institute of Public Policy, Adilet is expected to get 72.3% of the vote, followed by the Auyl party with 6.2%, Respublica with 5.2%, the Aq Jol Democratic Party with 5.1% and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party (NSDP) with 5%.
The People’s Party of Kazakhstan received 2.8%, while the Baytaq Green Party received 0.9%. Another 2.5% of respondents selected the “against all” option. A separate exit poll by the Institute of Eurasian Integration put Adilet at 71.8%, Auyl at 6.4%, Respublica at 5.4%, NSDP at 5.2% and Aq Jol at 5.1%.
The People’s Party received 3%, Baytaq 1% and “against all” 2.1%. The Institute for Comprehensive Social Research-Astana, known as SOCIS-A, projected 70.7% for Adilet, 6.4% for Auyl, 5.5% for Respublica, 5.4% for Aq Jol and 5% for NSDP. It put the People’s Party at 3.2%, Baytaq at 1.2% and “against all” at 2.6%.
All three exit polls suggested that five of the seven competing parties had reached the 5% electoral threshold. The People’s Party and Baytaq remained below the threshold in all three polls. The Central Election Commission (CEC) is expected to announce preliminary results after ballots have been counted.
Exit polls survey voters after they leave polling stations and serve only as an early indication of the outcome. Preliminary CEC figures showed voter turnout at 74.19% when polling stations across Kazakhstan closed at 8 p.m. Sunday. More than 12.6 million citizens were registered to vote at more than 10,000 polling stations nationwide and abroad.
The final overseas voting process will conclude at the polling station at Kazakhstan’s Consulate General in San Francisco at 8 a.m. Astana time on Aug. 24. Sunday’s vote was the first parliamentary election held under the new constitutional system. The election determines the composition of the 145-member Kurultai, which replaced Kazakhstan’s former bicameral Parliament under the new Constitution that took effect July 1.
All seats are allocated proportionally through party lists in a single nationwide constituency. Parties must receive at least 5% of the vote to qualify for seats. A total of 545 candidates representing seven political parties contested the election. Overall, 777 foreign observers from 42 countries and 13 international organizations have been accredited to monitor Kazakhstan’s election.