The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) steel demand forecast for 2026 and 2027. Compared with 2025, worldsteel forecasts that global steel demand will remain essentially unchanged in 2026 at 1,722 Mt, before returning to growth of 1.7% in 2027 to reach 1,752 Mt.
Commenting on the outlook, Alfonso HIDALGO DE CALCERRADA, Chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee, said: “The trajectory we set out in April holds, but the anticipated recovery is proving slower and more gradual than we had expected. Global steel demand is now forecast to be flat in 2026 rather than to grow modestly, and to grow by 1.7% in 2027 rather than 2.2%.
Almost the whole of that revision is a China story. Outside China, demand grows by 1.5% this year and accelerates to 4.0% in 2027 — precisely the rate we projected six months ago, and one rarely seen in recent times. The recovery we described in April is therefore not weaker; its momentum is being masked by the scale of China’s structural contraction and compounded by energy-market disruptions stemming from ongoing instability in the Middle East.
One of the most important messages coming from our October 2026 forecasts is a reaffirmation of the expectations for a meaningful turnaround in developed world industrial activity and steel demand in 2027. Following a stabilisation over 2025–2026, developed world industrial activity is expected to show a broad-based recovery in 2027, which is underpinned by growth in AI-related investments, defence and energy transition spending, improving incomes and a supportive policy framework.
With the developed world growing alongside developing economies excluding China, the outlook for steel demand growth outside China reaches 4.0% in 2027. Growth on that scale, and that broadly based, has been rare in recent years and is an encouraging signal for the steel industry and the wider economy.
This outlook reflects data available as of early September 2026. In April we assumed the conflict in the Middle East would be resolved by June, and we warned that a longer conflict would force material downward revisions. The conflict has not been resolved, yet the initial hit to global activity has been less severe than we had assumed.
Energy markets absorbed the disruption better than feared, and the major economies proved more resilient than our downside case implied. Yet, that resilience should not be mistaken for immunity. Where exposure is direct—most acutely across the Gulf—the economic damage is undeniable.
While the global economy has absorbed the initial impact, its capacity to buffer subsequent disruptions appears increasingly depleted. For this reason, we maintain a measure of caution regarding the 2027 outlook.” We now expect Chinese steel demand to contract by 2.0% in 2026, a downward revision from our April forecast.
The property investment downturn has not decelerated as we had anticipated. Infrastructure investment, which we had expected to provide support this year, has instead remained in negative territory. Steel demand from manufacturing has continued to grow on the back of strong exports, but not by enough to offset the weaker than expected performance of real estate and infrastructure.
For 2027, we expect the contraction in China to narrow to 1.0%. The real estate downturn is expected to start decelerating while remaining negative, the government retains a cautious stance towards expanding infrastructure investment, and manufacturing should sustain moderate growth provided exports hold up.