ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s water future may depend less on how much water reaches its rivers than on when it arrives. Climate change is shifting snowmelt, glacier runoff and river-flow peaks across Central Asia, forcing the country to rethink how it stores, forecasts and uses water.
A view of the Tian Shan mountain peaks near Almaty, Kazakhstan. Photo credit: Reuters For centuries, Central Asia’s mountains have acted as a natural water-storage system. Snow accumulates in winter, glaciers store water as ice, and meltwater feeds rivers during the warmer months.
But that seasonal balance is changing. Central Asian glaciers experienced their most severe year of ice loss on record in 2025, losing an estimated 30 cubic kilometers of ice, equivalent to nearly 2% of the region’s remaining glacier volume, according to a study published in Environmental Research Letters in May.
Kazakhstan has more than 2,400 glaciers covering approximately 930 square kilometers, according to data maintained by the Central Asian Regional Glaciological Center. Earlier estimates recorded 2,724 glaciers nationwide. In the Ile Alatau, the glacierized area declined by 47.4% between 1955 and 2021.
The changes have implications for regional water security: glacier melt accounted for approximately 25% of annual river discharge in the northern Tien Shan during 1991-2021, while 44.3% of Kazakhstan’s average annual surface-water resources originate beyond its borders.
Tomas Saks, a senior researcher at the Department of Geosciences at the University of Fribourg, said snow cover remains the dominant source of river runoff in Central Asia, accounting for around 70-80% of total runoff. Glaciers provide a smaller share annually, around 6-10% for the Syr Darya and Amu Darya.
Their importance rises sharply during dry summer months, when most seasonal snow has already melted. “In the dry summer seasons, when most of the snow has already melted, glaciers contribute up to 80%, making them a crucial water resource for the dry summer months,” Saks told The Astana Times.
This means glacier retreat is not simply a matter of declining annual water volumes. One of the first major changes is seasonality. Saks expects the Syr Darya’s peak runoff to shift from roughly July-August towards May-June as snow melts earlier. Summer runoff is then expected to decline as glacier volumes decrease.
The Amu Darya is also projected to reach its peak earlier, although its larger, higher-elevation glaciers are expected to continue supplying significant summer meltwater for longer. Kazakhstan is adapting its water policy to this shift. The country’s Water Code, adopted in 2025, incorporates climate adaptation into water-sector management.
The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation told The Astana Times that it is now assessing long-term water availability at the basin level.