ASTANA — The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, also known as OPEC+, moved to raise June output quotas on May 3 after the United Arab Emirates left the alliance amid the war in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
For Kazakhstan, the move underscores the challenge of balancing rising production ambitions with export bottlenecks and its commitments under the OPEC+ framework. Kazakhstan between quotas and constraints Kazakhstan, which participates in OPEC+ but is not an OPEC member, said it does not plan to change its cooperation format with the alliance.
According to Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov, Kazakhstan produced 19.7 million tons of oil and gas condensate between January and March, or 80.2% of the level recorded a year earlier. Exports totaled 15.3 million tons, or 78.5% year-on-year. The ministry forecasts exports at 76 million tons in 2026.
“At Karachaganak [an oil field in western Kazakhstan], work continues to launch the sixth raw gas reinjection compressor, which will help maintain oil production at 10-11 million tons per year. Negotiations are underway with major subsoil users on measures to increase oil production,” said Akkenzhenov at an April 14 government meeting.
According to OPEC’s Annual Statistical Bulletin, Kazakhstan’s crude oil production rose by 239,000 barrels per day in 2025 to 1.78 million barrels per day. However, these figures are not directly comparable with national statistics, which include gas condensate.
OPEC tracks crude oil only, excluding condensate produced at fields such as Karachaganak, meaning the datasets reflect different measurement approaches rather than inconsistencies. Data from the energy ministry put Kazakhstan’s 2025 oil and gas condensate production at nearly 100 million tons.
Globally, oil production increased by 2.24 million barrels per day in 2025 to 74.85 million barrels per day, while OPEC+ accounted for 55.9% of output, according to OPEC. Kazakhstan’s proven oil reserves remained unchanged at 30 billion barrels over the past decade.
Seven OPEC+ countries, including Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia, agreed to increase their combined production quota by 188,000 barrels per day in June, according to the group’s statement. Kazakhstan’s share of the increase amounts to 10,000 barrels per day, bringing its target to 1.599 million barrels per day.
The decision followed the UAE’s formal withdrawal from OPEC+ on May 1. The country had been one of the group’s largest producers and according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), accounted for approximately 12% of the OPEC output earlier this year. According to Reuters, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the decision followed a review of the national energy strategy and was not discussed with other countries.