ASTANA — Kazakhstan's transport and storage sector maintained double-digit expansion in the first quarter of 2026, posting 12.8% year-on-year growth, though the rate of increase decelerated significantly from the 21% advance recorded during the same period last year, according to a recent analysis by the Halyk Finance Analytical Center.
The moderation reflects a high base effect as prior strong growth comparisons make subsequent gains appear comparatively subdued, alongside external headwinds that weighed on specific transport modes, according to Asan Kurmanbekov, an analyst at the center.
Freight Transportation Performance
Overall freight transportation increased by 8% year-on-year, according to data from the Bureau of National Statistics. Road transport emerged as the standout performer, expanding by 20.4% and accounting for the bulk of sector gains. Rail freight matched the overall freight average with 8% growth, while air cargo posted a more modest 3.2% increase—a figure that fell well short of earlier double-digit trajectories recorded at the start of the year.
Pipeline transportation, closely correlated with crude oil production volumes, contracted by 5.3% after posting strong growth throughout 2025. Maritime transport also declined, slipping 1.1% year-on-year. Kurmanbekov attributed part of this divergence to external pressures, including geopolitical tensions affecting key logistics corridors.
Air freight experienced particular disruption due to escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which curtailed routes and dampened demand. Pipeline throughput was further constrained by infrastructure complications involving the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and operational setbacks at the Tengiz field, Kazakhstan's largest crude producer.
Passenger Transport Dynamics
Passenger transportation grew by 9.3% year-on-year, moderating from the 12.7% expansion recorded in the first quarter of 2025. Rail passenger traffic declined by 1.6%, continuing a structural shift toward road-based transit options. Road passenger transport expanded by 9.5%, down from 13.1% during the comparable prior-year period.
Within the road passenger segment, taxi services remained a primary growth driver, surging 83.2%. Analysts noted that a significant portion of this increase stems from improved statistical coverage enabled by digitalization, which brought previously unrecorded taxi activity into official datasets. The distinction between genuine new demand and enhanced measurement complicates interpretation of the headline figure.
Transit Potential and Economic Context
The report underscored the growing strategic significance of transit flows traversing Kazakhstan, particularly along the China-Europe corridor. However, transit volumes currently lack dedicated classification within official statistics, potentially understating their actual contribution to sector output.
Broader macroeconomic conditions also influenced transport activity. Short-term economic indicators registered near-zero growth during the first two months of 2026, creating a subdued demand environment across logistics subsectors.
"The transport sector in the first quarter of the current year in the republic was noticeably affected by both internal and external shocks," Kurmanbekov observed. "External shocks had a pronounced impact on air freight transportation. Pipeline transport decreased against the backdrop of a combination of damage to transport infrastructure and accidents at the largest field in the country." Road freight transport demonstrated the strongest growth trajectory, though this partly reflects a relatively low comparison base from the preceding year.