The state visit of Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh to Kazakhstan, scheduled for April 20 to 23, could become a turning point in relations between the two countries. Despite political closeness and the status of a strategic partnership, the economic potential of cooperation between Kazakhstan and Mongolia remains largely untapped.
Why trade turnover still falls short of expectations and what role shared history plays in bringing the countries closer is examined by a Qazinform News Agency correspondent. Kazakhstan and Mongolia established diplomatic relations on January 22, 1992. Over more than three decades, an extensive institutional framework has been formed, with over 60 agreements signed, an intergovernmental commission in place, and political dialogue established.
A turning point came with the state visit of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Mongolia in October 2024, during which the parties signed a Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership, concluded 11 interstate and interagency documents, and outlined priority areas for growth: transport, agriculture, energy, logistics, and investment.
“During the Head of State’s visit to Ulaanbaatar, a Roadmap for the development of trade and economic cooperation for 2025–2027 was agreed, and the intention to accelerate the conclusion of an agreement on the promotion and mutual protection of investments was outlined,” said political analyst Yersultan Zhansseitov.
Against this backdrop, the Mongolian leader’s state visit to Kazakhstan can be seen as an opportunity to give additional momentum to the agreements already reached. The key question is whether the sides can move from political declarations to tangible results, primarily in the economy.
So far, indicators remain modest, even considering recent growth in trade turnover. Economy: Growth exists, but scale remains limited Trade between Kazakhstan and Mongolia in 2024–2026 shows growth and forward movement, but this is gradual development rather than large-scale expansion.
In 2024, total trade stood at about $150 million, with $83.9 million recorded from January to August. In 2025, the trend continued without sharp increases, reaching $121.5 million from January to November, up 5.5% year on year. Growth is therefore moderate and reflects inertia in existing flows rather than structural change.
This is especially evident in early 2026: trade totaled $20.1 million in January to February, compared to $22.4 million a year earlier, marking a 10.3% decline. The drop was mainly due to a 16.1% fall in Kazakhstan’s exports to $18.5 million, while imports from Mongolia surged nearly fivefold, from $0.31 million to $1.56 million.
As a result, Kazakhstan’s traditionally high surplus narrowed from $21.8 million to $17 million. The main feature of trade is its pronounced asymmetry. Around 90 to 93% of turnover is generated by Kazakhstan’s exports, effectively forming a “supplier-consumer” model.
Any fluctuation in key goods immediately affects overall dynamics. For instance, a 25.1% drop in tobacco exports, from $4.5 million to $3.37 million, reduced overall figures in early 2026. Supplies of chocolate and cocoa products fell by 72.7%, equipment and electronics by over 90% in some categories, and bakery products by 12.3%.