ALMATY – OPEC+ has decided to keep oil production targets for October unchanged, pausing further adjustments as the alliance assesses market conditions and prepares for a broader review of production baselines for 2027. The decision was made on Sept. 6 during a virtual meeting of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, the seven OPEC+ countries that previously announced additional voluntary production adjustments in 2023.
Under the decision, the seven countries will maintain their September 2026 required production levels in October. For Kazakhstan, the October production quota will stand at 1.628 million barrels per day (bpd). Russia’s quota will be 9.949 million bpd, Saudi Arabia’s 10.478 million bpd, Iraq’s 4.431 million bpd, Kuwait’s 2.676 million bpd, Algeria’s 1.007 million bpd and Oman’s 841,000 bpd.
The seven countries also reaffirmed their commitment to full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation and agreed to continue meeting monthly to review market conditions. The next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 4. Pause follows earlier production increase The decision comes after OPEC+ increased production in September by 188,000 bpd, continuing the gradual unwinding of supply restrictions introduced in 2023.
In August, the group agreed to complete the phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd reduction that had been introduced in 2023. However, actual production by OPEC+ members has remained significantly below their official targets. According to Reuters, the unchanged October quotas therefore represent a pause in the recent process of increasing supply rather than a new production cut.
The pause comes amid major disruptions to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, which have constrained the physical movement of crude and limited the ability of OPEC+ to influence actual supply to the market. “OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy, according to Reuters.
“The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market.” The more consequential issue for OPEC+ is now likely to be the framework for production quotas in 2027. Another layer of production restrictions remains in place for most members of the wider 21-country OPEC+ group through the end of 2026.
Before deciding how and when to unwind those restrictions, the alliance needs to assess the production capacity of its members and establish new baseline levels, Reuters writes.