Kazakhstan’s oil sector is gaining additional momentum amid rising global prices, supply disruptions and resilient demand, according to OPEC, Qazinform News Agency reports. Global oil prices surged sharply in March, with the OPEC Reference Basket rising by $48.46 to average $116.36 per barrel.
The increase was driven by geopolitical tensions and tighter supply, which intensified competition for available volumes. OPEC noted that the market has entered a phase of pronounced supply deficit, as reflected in a backwardation structure, where short-term deliveries are priced higher than long-term contracts.
At the same time, global oil demand remains strong. In 2026, it is expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day, with the main contribution coming from non-OECD countries, particularly China and India. Demand growth is supported by the transportation sector, including rising consumption of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, especially during the summer season.
Oil supply is expanding at a more moderate pace. The main production growth in 2026 is expected to come from the United States, Brazil, Canada and Argentina, while OPEC+ countries continue to regulate output to balance the market. Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan is among the countries benefiting from current market conditions.
According to available industry data, the country’s oil production in recent months has stood at around 1.5–1.6 million barrels per day, with more than 80% exported, primarily via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Supply disruptions in the Middle East have increased interest in alternative sources of crude, including the Caspian region.
The report highlights rising prices for medium-sour crude grades, including those produced in Kazakhstan, as they are in demand for diesel and jet fuel production. Further evidence of Kazakhstan’s growing role in the European market is reflected in import dynamics.
The report states: “In February, OECD Europe crude imports edged back into the five-year range on the return of Kazakhstan flows. Product imports into the region also strengthened amid higher inflows of jet fuel.” Estimates suggest that Kazakhstan accounts for around 1.5–2% of global oil supply.
However, in a deficit environment, even such volumes become critically important for certain regions, particularly Europe. Earlier Qazinform News Agency reported that global oil prices dropped sharply below $100 per barrel after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a conditional ceasefire agreement with Iran.