ALMATY – Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector has overtaken mining in its share of industrial output for the first time, marking a potentially important shift in the country’s economic structure. But economists say the headline figure should be viewed alongside a second trend: rising demand for imported machinery, equipment and technology as Kazakhstan enters a major investment cycle.
Manufacturing accounted for 46.7% of industrial production in January-July 2026, compared with 45.8% for mining, according to the Prime Minister’s press service. Manufacturing output reached 18.8 trillion tenge (US$40.7 billion), increasing 9% compared with the same period last year.
The shift comes as the government seeks to reduce the economy’s dependence on the export of raw materials by encouraging deeper processing, domestic production and higher-value industries. The policy is supported by investment incentives, special economic zones, preferential access to domestic raw materials, offtake agreements and measures designed to increase the participation of Kazakh manufacturers in regulated procurement.
From raw materials to higher-value production The government’s figures show strong growth across several manufacturing industries. Machine building increased 22% in the first seven months of the year, reaching 3.2 trillion tenge (US$6.92 billion). Metallurgy generated 8.1 trillion tenge (US$17.52 billion), while chemical production increased 26.9% to 1 trillion tenge (US$2.16 billion).
Automotive manufacturing illustrates the direction of the policy particularly clearly. More than 96,000 vehicles were produced during the period, while the share of small-scale assembly reached 28.3%. New production facilities are also creating demand for locally produced tyres, batteries, seats and multimedia systems.
State support creates demand, but competitiveness remains the test One of the government’s main instruments is an offtake contract, which gives manufacturers a guaranteed buyer for products that are yet to be produced. In the first half of 2026, long-term agreements and offtake contracts involving subsoil users and the quasi-public sector amounted to 466 billion tenge (US$1.01 billion).
Samruk Kazyna’s purchases from domestic manufacturers more than doubled and exceeded 2.1 trillion tenge (US$4.54 billion). Special economic zones provide another layer of support. According to government figures, 577 projects in 18 zones have attracted 11.1 trillion tenge (US$24 billion) in investment and created more than 39,000 jobs.
Residents have generated 865.4 billion tenge (US$1.87 billion) in tax revenues, compared with 507.4 billion tenge (US$1.1 billion) in state spending on infrastructure. However, leading Kazakh financial analyst Rassul Rysmambetov cautioned that the latest figures should not yet be interpreted as evidence of a completed structural transformation.
“First of all, just as an introduction, I would say that we do not yet have a structural shift, but it is beginning. We will probably only be able to speak about a genuine structural shift in several years, after we have sustainably and consistently earned not from oil and not from the extractive sector, but from processing and manufacturing,” he said.
Rysmambetov also highlighted that industrial policy should reach beyond the country’s largest companies and create opportunities for medium-sized businesses.