The National Bank of Kazakhstan has published the results of its latest macroeconomic survey of experts, Qazinform News Agency reports. The expert community provided forecasts for Brent crude oil prices, Kazakhstan's economic growth, inflation, the base rate, exports and imports of goods and services, and the tenge exchange rate.
Scenario conditions for oil prices were revised upward across the entire forecast horizon: for 2026, Brent price expectations rose from $82.7 to $88.4 per barrel; for 2027, from $75 to $80 per barrel; and for 2028, from $73.7 to $75 per barrel. At the same time, forecasts for Kazakhstan's economic growth changed insignificantly.
GDP growth is expected at 4.8% in 2026, 4.7% in 2027 (previously 4.6%), and 4.4% in 2028 (4.3%). Analysts' inflation forecasts were lowered across the entire forecast horizon: from 10% to 9.5% for 2026, from 8.5% to 8.3% for 2027, and from 7% to 6.9% for 2028. The median base rate expectation for 2026 was 15.9% (previously 16.0%).
The forecast for 2027 rose from 13% to 13.3%, and for 2028 — from 10.5% to 11.5%. The survey synthesizes forecasts from 14 independent analyst organizations. Respondents include professional market participants, research institutes, international organizations, and rating agencies.
The National Bank noted that the macroeconomic survey does not represent its own official projections. The figures reflect the independent opinions, estimates, and expectations of professional market participants. Earlier, Qazinform reported that Kazakhstan targets sub-10% inflation through year-end.