ASTANA – Kazakhstan has entered a new investment cycle that is beginning to change not only the volume but also the structure of capital entering the economy, according to the country’s leading financial analyst Rassul Rysmambetov. While the country remains dependent on extractive industries, growing investment in manufacturing, processing and high-technology production suggests that the long-discussed shift toward a more diversified economy is beginning to take shape.
“We can already confidently speak about the beginning of a structural shift. It is still too early to say that we are moving away from the resource-based model, but the figures show that the state is now moving toward a non-resource model not just in words, but in practice,” Rysmambetov said in a comment to The Astana Times.
From investment growth to structural change The change is visible in investment data. Between 2019 and 2025, investment in fixed capital in Kazakhstan increased from 12.6 trillion tenge (US$27.3 billion) to 23.5 trillion tenge (US$51 billion), while investment in manufacturing tripled from 1 trillion (US$2.2 billion) to 3 trillion tenge (US$6.5 billion).
The sector’s share of total investment rose from 8.1% to 12.7%, reported the Prime Minister’s press service on Aug. 31. Foreign investment is also diversifying. Gross foreign direct investment reached $20.5 billion in 2025, up 14.4%. Investment in manufacturing increased by 47.4%, or $1.4 billion, while investment in mining fell by 47%, or $3 billion.
The changing composition suggests Kazakhstan is attracting more capital into activities beyond raw-material extraction. This trend is supported by the growing pipeline of industrial projects. The Kazakh Invest portfolio currently includes 215 projects worth $78.6 billion, with more than 88,000 jobs expected to be created.
Of these, 93 projects worth $32.2 billion are already being implemented, while 122 projects worth $46.4 billion remain under development. A new system for turning capital into projects The government is seeking to reinforce this shift through a new investment-support system.
Since 2025, a three-level investment attraction model has been operating, with regions identifying priority projects and targeting investors. Fast Track mechanisms, investment headquarters and a “prosecutorial filter” are intended to reduce administrative barriers, while the National Digital Investment Platform provides monitoring and coordination.
Investment agreements are another part of the framework. Since the mechanism was introduced in 2021, 66 agreements worth more than 17.8 trillion tenge (US$38.6 billion) have been concluded. In 2025 alone, 30 agreements worth nearly 11.2 trillion tenge (US$24.3 billion) were signed.
By August, another 25 agreements worth approximately 4.4 trillion tenge (US$9.5 billion) had been concluded. The approach reflects a broader shift in investment policy: attracting capital is increasingly being linked to specific economic needs, including import substitution, exports, localization and the development of domestic supply chains.