Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s official visit to Germany in September took place in Berlin and Munich and, judging by its formal results, became one of the most productive in the history of bilateral relations. The parties signed more than 30 commercial documents worth approximately $2 billion and adopted a roadmap for industrial, technological and raw materials cooperation for 2026-2028.
However, the main news from the visit was what was said about the war in Ukraine. When it comes to settling the war in Ukraine, Europe and Russia speak different languages. Berlin proceeds from the premise that Russia will not win this war and that support for Ukraine will eventually push Moscow toward serious negotiations.
Moscow and much of Eurasia proceed from the opposite premise. Russia cannot be defeated militarily, and therefore continuing the war only multiplies the losses of all sides. Few direct channels remain through which these two narratives could meet. The dialogue between Kazakhstan and Germany has become one of them.
Since 2023, Tokayev has discussed the war with German chancellors three times, and each of these conversations has shown where the positions diverge and where room for convergence remains. Since the start of the full-scale war in 2022, high-level contacts between Astana and Berlin have gone through three stages.
The first was Tokayev’s official visit to Berlin in September 2023, when Olaf Scholz was chancellor. At the time, the Ukrainian issue was addressed mainly through the lens of sanctions. Following the talks, Tokayev stated that Kazakhstan would comply with the sanctions regime and that the German side should have no concerns about circumvention.
Scholz, in turn, expressed hope that Kazakhstan would help ensure Germany’s energy security. This logic defined the pragmatic foundation of the relationship. Germany gained a reliable supplier of oil and raw materials, while Kazakhstan received a political signal that its multi-vector policy was understood in Berlin.
That same year, Kazakh oil began flowing to the Schwedt refinery through the Russian pipeline system. The second stage is linked to Scholz’s visit to Astana in September 2024. It was there that Tokayev made the statement that still shapes how his position is perceived in Europe.
He told the chancellor that Russia is militarily invincible and that further escalation would lead to irreparable consequences for all of humanity. Tokayev also endorsed the Chinese-Brazilian peace plan, called the abandonment of the Istanbul agreements a missed opportunity, and proposed halting hostilities first and discussing territorial issues later.
Berlin’s reaction was restrained. Scholz disagreed with his Kazakh counterpart’s assessment and reiterated that Germany supports Kyiv. The joint press conference was cancelled, and the chancellor addressed journalists alone. A month later, at the Astana Think Tank Forum, Tokayev repeated the thesis, citing Russia’s military potential and history, and described the alternative to negotiations as a road to the abyss.
At the joint press conference on Sept. 29, Merz stated that Russia will not win this war and that Germany supports Ukraine without any reduction. He also identified air defence as Ukraine’s weakest point ahead of the coming winter. Tokayev presented his position in a new form.