ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s government has approved the Forecast of Socio-Economic Development and draft national budget for 2027-2029, targeting annual economic growth of more than 5% through 2029 while reducing the budget deficit to 0.4% of GDP. Financial analyst Rassul Rysmambetov says the targets are achievable, but only if Kazakhstan expands its productive capacity through greater electricity generation, industrial development and deeper processing.
Under the baseline scenario, real GDP growth is projected to average more than 5% annually, while the national budget deficit is expected to decline from 2.3% of GDP in 2027 to 0.4% in 2029. Inflation is projected at 7.5-9.5% in 2027, before moderating to 6-8% in 2028-2029.
Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 4.1% in January-July, while the government expects full-year GDP growth of at least 5%. The framework focuses on expanding non-oil sectors, improving public spending efficiency and maintaining macroeconomic stability. The government expects manufacturing, agriculture, construction and services to provide the main contribution to growth.
Nominal GDP is projected to increase from 199.3 trillion tenge (US$436.2 billion) in 2027 to 245 trillion tenge (US$536.3 billion) in 2029. Manufacturing is expected to outpace mining, led by metallurgy, machinery, construction materials, chemicals and food production.
Agriculture is forecast to grow by at least 5% annually, while construction growth is projected to rise from 16% in 2027 to 17.3% in 2029. Transport and warehousing and information and communications are expected to grow by 10.4% and 9.2%, respectively. Inflation remains an important assumption The projected inflation path is an important part of the macroeconomic framework.
Inflation is expected to remain relatively high in 2027 before declining in the following two years. Its trajectory will affect household purchasing power, business costs, investment decisions and the government’s fiscal position. Keeping inflation on the projected path will also affect the sustainability of planned economic growth.
Reducing the deficit while maintaining investment The government projects budget revenues of 19.9 trillion tenge (US$43.5 billion) in 2027, rising to 23.4 trillion tenge (US$51.2 billion) in 2029. Expenditures are planned at 30.2 trillion tenge (US$66.1 billion) in 2027, 29.4 trillion tenge (US$64.3 billion) in 2028 and 29.6 trillion tenge (US$64.8 billion) in 2029.
The non-oil deficit is expected to decline from 5.3% of GDP to 2.5% over the same period.