ALMATY – The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) cut its base rate to 16.75% on July 24, citing nine consecutive months of slowing inflation, while Governor Timur Suleimenov said policymakers would continue to base future decisions on incoming economic data rather than follow a predetermined easing path.
The NBK Monetary Policy Committee lowered the base rate by 25 basis points, setting a corridor of plus or minus one percentage point, saying the decision reflected continued disinflation while maintaining monetary conditions sufficiently tight to bring inflation back to the 5% medium-term target.
According to Suleimenov, the committee’s deliberations combined economic forecasts, market analysis and independent assessments by each member. “The forecasting team presented a comprehensive assessment of developments in the economy, financial markets and the external environment.
Based on this, every committee member formed an independent view and voted independently,” he said. He added that committee members also prepared their own forecasts for inflation, oil prices, economic growth and the future path of the base rate before and after the committee’s discussions.
According to Suleimenov, the balance of risks remains tilted toward inflation as the external environment remains volatile. National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov. Photo credit: National Bank “Despite some slowdown in inflation, persistent components of price growth have accelerated and inflation expectations remain relatively high.
This points to continuing inflation risks and requires a cautious approach to easing monetary policy,” he said. He also highlighted that annual inflation eased to 10.3% in June from 10.4% in May, marking the ninth consecutive month of decline. According to him, food inflation slowed from 10.7% to 10.4%, while non-food inflation remained unchanged at 11.7%.
Services inflation edged up to 9% from 8.7%, reflecting higher prices for non-regulated services despite continued annual declines in regulated utility tariffs. “The key disinflationary factors are the current monetary policy, the strong exchange rate of the tenge, the stabilization of consumer activity, and a number of anti-inflationary measures taken by the government and the National Bank,” Suleimenov said, adding that professional market participants, however, kept their 2026 inflation forecast at 10% while lowering their 2027 projection to 7.8%.
According to the NBK Governor, Kazakhstan’s economy continues to gain momentum. “In January-June 2026, gross domestic product grew by 4.1%. Growth excluding the mining industry was about 5.3%,” he said.