ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow by around 4.6% this year, supported by high oil prices, strong domestic demand, and investment inflows, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said following a June 3-12 mission to the country. Photo credit: International Monetary Fund.
The IMF noted that growth moderated to 3.7% in January-May due to lower oil production following a force-majeure accident at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Strong performance in services, transport, construction, and manufacturing helped offset weaker oil output, according to the June 15 IMF report.
The fund said inflation remains well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s 5% target despite easing from 12.9% in September 2025 to 10.4% in May. It recommended maintaining a tight monetary stance and stronger fiscal and quasi-fiscal discipline to support disinflation efforts.
The IMF expects fiscal and external positions to strengthen this year, backed by elevated oil prices and tax reforms. The current account is projected to shift from a 4.1% of GDP deficit in 2025 to a marginal surplus this year. The banking sector remains sound, with banks well-capitalized, liquid, and profitable, while risks to the outlook include potential disruptions to oil exports, global uncertainty, and inflationary pressures stemming from domestic demand and public spending.
The IMF said Kazakhstan can strengthen its fight against inflation and boost long-term growth through deeper structural reforms, including reducing the state footprint, encouraging private investment, deepening capital markets, and upgrading human, physical, and digital infrastructure.
“Stronger fiscal and quasi-fiscal discipline, enhanced public spending efficiency, including through the use of Digital Tenge, which enables real-time tracking and targeted use of budgetary and National Fund resources, and a more dynamic private sector would help curb inflation and support stronger, diversified long-term growth,” reads the statement.
In a recent interview with The Astana Times, Jihad Azour, director of the IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department, said Central Asia is increasingly serving as a “transit hedge” amid growing geopolitical uncertainty, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges facing the region.