ASTANA – Kazakhstan’s inflation is projected to decline to 8.2% in 2027, while economic growth is expected to accelerate to 4.9%, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest World Economic Outlook, released Oct. 13 at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.
The IMF forecasts inflation to fall from 11.4% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026 before declining further next year. Economic growth is projected at 4.4% in 2026, rising to 4.9% in 2027. The report also identifies Kazakhstan among the countries outside the Persian Gulf that increased oil production and helped the global market adjust to disruptions in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
The IMF expects Kazakhstan’s unemployment rate to remain at 4.6% in 2026 before easing to 4.5% in 2027. The country’s current account balance is projected to remain positive at 0.5% of gross domestic product in 2026. Kazakhstan is also mentioned in the report’s assessment of the economic effects of the artificial intelligence boom.
The fund identifies the country among commodity exporters benefiting from increased exports of technology-related goods produced by major Asian manufacturing economies. The report examines how the conflict in the Middle East disrupted global energy markets, with supplies through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted in the spring.
The disruption affected a route responsible for approximately 20% of global oil supplies, pushing prices to $126 per barrel in late March, according to the information cited in the report. The IMF said the market adapted partly because countries outside the Persian Gulf increased production.
Brazil, Kazakhstan, the United States and Venezuela were among those identified as helping offset the supply shortfall. The report’s global outlook remains closely tied to developments in the Middle East. The IMF assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March 2027 and that shipping will return to previous levels by October 2027.
Under this scenario, oil prices are projected to average $96 per barrel in 2026 and $87 in 2027. Artificial intelligence supports global growth The IMF raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.1%, up from 3% in its July projection. The global economy grew by 3.5% in 2025, while growth is expected to reach 3.4% in 2027.
The fund attributes the improved outlook partly to substantial investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, which is helping offset the economic effects of higher energy prices and the prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Economies building AI platforms and manufacturing the equipment needed to support them are among those receiving upgraded forecasts.
The report highlights South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand in this context.