ASTANA – Kazakhstan is seeking to turn its refining capacity into a competitive advantage in regional fuel markets as disruptions to Russian supplies and tightening global diesel markets create new opportunities and risks for Central Asia’s largest oil producer.
The government aims to fully meet domestic demand for petroleum products and begin exporting finished fuels to neighboring Central Asian countries by 2030. The strategy would allow Kazakhstan to capture more value from its oil resources and diversify its energy revenues beyond crude exports.
Dr. Glenn Agung Hole, an institutional economist, associate professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and nonresident fellow at CFive. Photo credit: Hole’s personal archieve The ambition is realistic, but success will depend on whether Kazakhstan can turn additional refining capacity into a sustainable export industry, said Dr.
Glenn Agung Hole, an institutional economist, associate professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and nonresident fellow at CFive. “I would distinguish between increasing refining capacity and developing a genuinely competitive export industry,” Hole told The Astana Times.
According to him, Kazakhstan has substantial oil resources, an established petroleum sector and a favorable geographical position. The government plans to expand the Shymkent refinery’s annual capacity from six million to 12 million metric tons by 2030. Its development strategy also anticipates a potential diesel surplus of 1.8 million tons that year.
“However, these are projections, not guaranteed export volumes,” Hole said. Expanding production amid supply pressures Kazakhstan’s export ambitions come as its crude oil production faces pressure. The country produced 69.4 million tons of crude oil between January and September, down 8.3% from the same period in 2025, Deputy Energy Minister Yerlan Akbarov said at an Oct.
13 government meeting Oct. 13. Output at major fields also declined. Tengiz produced 26.7 million tons, equivalent to 88% of its year-earlier output. Kashagan produced 12.8 million tons, while Karachaganak produced 7.5 million tons. The government lowered its 2026 crude oil and condensate production forecast to 96 million tons from 98 million tons, partly because of disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure following drone attacks.
The CPC transports around 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports, leaving the country exposed to disruptions along a major export route. Alternative routes across the Caspian Sea and toward China offer options for diversification, although they can involve higher costs.