ASTANA — Kazakhstan’s economy is experiencing a slowdown in growth across its key sectors, according to a new report released on April 27 by the Halyk Finance analytical center, based on data for the first quarter of 2026. Analyst Timur Dilmukhametov noted that Kazakhstan’s economy grew by 3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, compared to 5.6% year-on-year in the same period of 2025.
“The slowdown in growth rates is observed across all key sectors except agriculture. This is largely due to a significant decline in production in the mining industry, particularly in the oil and gas sector, which, through a multiplier effect, impacts related industries,” he said.
The short-term economic indicator index, which reflects the performance of key sectors, slowed to 2.5% year-on-year, compared to 8.3% in the same period last year. Across individual industries, growth and decline remain uneven. Industrial output has moved into negative territory, declining by 0.7% year-on-year.
The main pressure came from the oil sector, where production fell by nearly 20% year-on-year over the three-month period, according to the Energy Ministry. In contrast, the manufacturing sector grew by 8.5% year-on-year, supported by machinery production (+21.9%) and food manufacturing (+12.6%), while metallurgy recorded negative dynamics (-6.3%).
The transport sector continues to demonstrate double-digit growth rates, significantly outpacing overall GDP growth. However, growth slowed from 21% in the first quarter of 2025 to 12.8% in the same period this year, largely due to a high base effect and a combination of external and internal factors.
In construction, growth rates eased to 14.8% year-on-year from 16.9% in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a slowdown in residential and non-residential building activity, while infrastructure construction, by contrast, increased. Formally, Kazakhstan’s economy continues to grow, but this growth increasingly appears on paper, failing to generate either an investment boom or a noticeable revival in business activity.
In a comment to The Astana Times, financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov describes this phase as a “flat economy,” or a plateau. This is a situation where growth exists, but it is not accompanied by acceleration. “It is similar to what happens in sports, when an athlete hits a plateau when no exercise delivers further gains in strength or mass.
At such moments, you need to push through, change your routine, and adjust your lifestyle and nutrition,” he explained. At the same time, a slowdown in fiscal stimulus was also observed in the first quarter of 2026.