ALMATY – Kazakhstan’s decision to cut its 2026 oil production target from 98 million tonnes to 96 million tonnes after disruptions affecting the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) has highlighted the country’s continued dependence on a major export route and the need to strengthen alternatives, experts say.
Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said at an Aug. 25 government briefing that attacks on CPC facilities in January and again in July had resulted in nearly 3.5 million tonnes of lost oil production. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said at an Aug. 25 government briefing that attacks on CPC facilities had resulted in nearly 3.5 million tonnes of lost oil production.
Photo credit. PM’s press service “We planned to produce 98 million tonnes, but the adjusted plan is now 96 million tonnes. The losses in production from the attacks on CPC will amount to 3.5 million tonnes,” Akkenzhenov said. The minister said Kazakhstan and oil producers had also adjusted maintenance schedules to preserve as much production as possible in 2026.
Tengizchevroil shareholders decided to postpone major maintenance until next year, while maintenance work at fields operated by North Caspian Operating Company was also moved to 2027. Maintenance at the Karachaganak field, meanwhile, is expected to begin in mid-September and is projected to reduce production by nearly 400,000-450,000 tonnes.
The developments highlight a broader challenge for Kazakhstan: as a major oil exporter, the country’s production capacity is only one part of the equation. Maintaining reliable access to international markets through secure and diversified export routes is equally important.
CPC remains critical to Kazakhstan’s oil exports Kazakhstan produces substantially more oil than it consumes domestically, making export infrastructure a critical component of the country’s economic security. The CPC remains the country’s principal export route for crude oil, connecting Kazakhstan’s major producing fields with the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
Repeated disruptions have therefore created a challenge that goes beyond temporary reductions in pipeline throughput. They have raised questions about how quickly Kazakhstan can redirect crude if its main export route becomes unavailable or operates below capacity.
Economist and independent oil and gas reserves evaluator Abzal Narymbetov highlights that Kazakhstan’s position as a major net oil exporter makes diversification particularly important. “Kazakhstan produces approximately five times more oil than it consumes domestically.
This makes Kazakhstan a distinctly oil-exporting country,” Narymbetov wrote in his Energy Analytics Telegram channel. He also said the strategic issue is not simply increasing production.