For years, Europe has been talking about reducing its strategic dependence on China, whether in critical raw materials, industrial supply chains or technologies needed for the green and digital transitions. But there is a question that seems particularly relevant for Kazakhstan: if Europe wants to diversify away from China, what exactly is it prepared to offer the countries that could help it do so?
Photo credit: Ai created image/ The Astana Times Central Asia has become increasingly important in this discussion, and for understandable reasons. Kazakhstan and its neighbors have natural resources, a strategic location between Europe and Asia, and growing ambitions to develop transport links, industrial capacity and new technologies.
Yet the region is also deeply connected to China, whose economic presence is unlikely to diminish simply because Brussels wants to reduce certain dependencies. For Central Asia, this creates an opportunity, but not an automatic win. Europe’s search for alternatives to China could bring new investment, technology and industrial partnerships to the region, but whether these translate into lasting economic gains will depend on what Europe is prepared to offer and what Central Asian governments can negotiate in return.
Europe cannot simply walk away from China The European Union’s (EU) position on China is complicated. Beijing is simultaneously an economic partner, a global competitor and a systemic rival, said Paweł Gałecki, an expert on EU-China relations at the International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies.
Paweł Gałecki, an expert on EU-China relations at the International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies. Photo credit: Personal archive “A complete or majority separation of the EU from Chinese-origin technology, products, and logistics is simply impossible and unrealistic,” he said.
European companies operate factories and research and development centers in China, while Chinese manufacturers have established strong positions in several industrial sectors. The more realistic prospect, Gałecki notes, is managed strategic rivalry, with cooperation continuing where interests overlap while restrictions tighten in areas considered important for Europe’s economic security.
Yet this approach is complicated by differences among EU member states, whose governments do not always share the same priorities toward Beijing. Individual countries continue to pursue relations with China according to their economic interests and domestic political circumstances, making a consistent European strategy difficult to maintain.
For Central Asia, the implications are significant. If Europe wants to diversify its supply chains and strengthen its economic security, it needs reliable partners beyond China. The region offers opportunities, but those opportunities will not automatically translate into a stronger European presence.