ASTANA – The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has raised its forecast for Kazakhstan’s economic growth in 2027 to 5%, up from 4.6% in its previous outlook, while projecting a gradual decline in inflation through 2029. The fund expects Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 5% in 2026, following 6.5% growth in 2025.
Growth is projected to remain at 5% in 2027 before slowing to 4.2% in 2028 and 4.1% in 2029, according to the EFSD’s autumn regional economic outlook. The revised forecast reflects expectations of sustained oil production, major investment and infrastructure projects, and a more expansionary fiscal policy.
However, the fund warns that strong domestic demand and continued budget stimulus could complicate efforts to bring inflation under control. “The main challenge for economic policy will be to strike a balance between supporting economic growth and maintaining price, fiscal and external stability,” said Sergei Ulatov, the EFSD’s chief economist.
Oil production and investment to support growth The EFSD expects Kazakhstan’s economy to maintain relatively strong growth despite less favorable global conditions, including geopolitical tensions, higher transportation costs and volatility in commodity markets.
The fund forecasts 5% GDP growth in 2026, unchanged from its summer outlook. The estimate reflects the recovery of oil production at the Tengiz field to full capacity in the second quarter, steady performance in non-oil sectors and high investment activity by the quasi-public sector.
Additional support is expected from fiscal policy in the second half of the year, including a planned targeted transfer of 1.5 trillion tenge (US$3 billion) through the Infrastructure Development Fund. Elevated commodity prices amid global uncertainty are also expected to support export revenues and activity in resource-producing companies.
The outlook for 2027 has improved, with the EFSD raising its growth forecast from 4.6% to 5%. The revision is based on expectations that oil production will remain stable, large-scale investment and infrastructure projects will proceed, and fiscal policy will provide stronger support.
However, the fund expects consumer demand to remain relatively subdued because of moderately tight monetary conditions, slower retail lending and weak growth in real household incomes. In 2028-2029, growth is expected to moderate as the effects of increased oil production fade and domestic demand returns to more sustainable levels.
Inflation to decline gradually through 2029 The EFSD expects inflation to reach 9.5% by the end of 2026, down from its previous forecast of 9.8%. The revision reflects slower price growth amid weaker increases in regulated services and fuel and lubricants prices, as well as a stronger tenge.