ASTANA – The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) on June 15 released its macroeconomic outlook for 2026-2028, forecasting that Central Asia’s economy will expand by more than 6.5% in 2026 and exceed $600 billion in gross domestic product for the first time. The bank expects continued strong growth across its member states, led by the Kyrgyz Republic at 10.2%, Tajikistan at 8.3%, and Uzbekistan at 7.9%.
Armenia’s economy is projected to grow by 6%, while Kazakhstan is expected to expand by 5.5%. Despite a slowing global economy linked to the conflict in the Persian Gulf, the combined GDP of the EDB’s seven member countries, including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, is projected to surpass $3.5 trillion in 2026.
“The conflict in the Persian Gulf has affected oil and gas prices, logistics, and overall business sentiment. Inflationary pressures are intensifying while global business activity is slowing. As a result, we expect global economic growth to decelerate to 2.5% in 2026, the lowest level in more than 15 years excluding the pandemic year of 2020,” said Alexey Kuznetsov, head of the EDB’s Directorate for Analytical Work.
Kuznetsov noted that the impact on the region could vary. Higher energy prices are supporting export revenues and government budgets in Russia and Kazakhstan, while energy-importing countries face rising inflation driven by more expensive fuel, food and transportation costs.
“Despite these external challenges, the region’s economies maintain a solid degree of resilience. Central Asia will remain one of the fastest-growing regions in the world and is becoming larger, more visible and increasingly attractive to investors,” he said. Aigul Berdigulova, a senior analyst at the EDB’s Country Analysis Center, presented country-specific forecasts for Central Asia, including projections for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates.
For Kazakhstan, the EDB forecasts economic growth of 5.5% in 2026, a more optimistic outlook than those of several international financial institutions and government agencies. Berdigulova attributed the forecast to the government’s industrial policy, the launch of new manufacturing facilities, and the completion of previously announced industrial projects.
She also cited nearly 200 investment projects worth around 1.7 trillion tenge ($3.4 billion) and the implementation of the national infrastructure development plan as major growth drivers. High oil prices are expected to further boost export earnings. The bank forecasts inflation to slow to 9.7% in 2026, although it will remain above the central bank’s target range.
Elevated global food and fertilizer prices and persistent inflation expectations are expected to limit the pace of disinflation. At the same time, tight monetary policy, a relatively strong tenge and government measures to limit regulated price increases are expected to help moderate inflation.