ASTANA – Central Asia is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing regions in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD) economies in 2026 and 2027, although rising energy costs, water scarcity and tighter financing conditions could weigh on the outlook, according to the bank’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report.
The EBRD forecasts economic growth in Central Asia at 5.8% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027. Forecasts were revised upward for Uzbekistan, supported by strong domestic demand, and Mongolia, driven by record mining output. At the same time, disruptions to fuel supplies from Russia remain a downside risk for the region.
“Inflationary pressures increased across the region amid higher food and energy prices, reflecting elevated global energy costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East and fuel-market disruptions in Russia,” reads the report. In Kazakhstan, economic growth narrowed to 4.1% year on year in the first half of 2026, according to the EBRD.
“At the same time, non-oil sectors remained robust. Manufacturing output increased by 9% year on year over the same period, supported by strong performance in machine building, particularly the production of motor vehicles, trailers and semitrailers, as well as equipment repair and installation, food processing and chemicals,” it added.
The report, titled “Running Dry,” also identifies growing constraints in three key areas – oil exports, water and global savings. The EBRD said these pressures reveal vulnerabilities in energy systems, food supply chains and financing conditions across its regions.
The broader economies where the EBRD invests are projected to grow by 2.5% in 2026, before accelerating to 4% in 2027. The 2026 forecast was revised down by 0.6 percentage points compared with the bank’s previous forecast in June. The EBRD report highlights the impact of higher energy prices on economies across its regions.
Oil prices rose from around $65 per barrel before the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East to more than $100 per barrel in April 2026. Prices remain 30% to 60% above their pre-conflict level, while refined products, particularly diesel and jet fuel, have experienced even larger increases.
Gas markets have also tightened. According to the EBRD, gas prices have risen by more than 70% since February, while global seaborne liquefied natural gas exports have fallen by 40% as Middle Eastern cargoes have largely stopped. The developments are particularly relevant for energy-producing economies such as Kazakhstan.
Higher energy prices can support export revenues, but volatility in global energy markets also creates risks for economies dependent on commodity exports. “Disruptions along the Caspian Pipeline Consortium export route, together with fire- and powerrelated incidents at the Tengiz field in early 2026, resulted in an 8.9% contraction in oil and gas output in January-July 2026,” reads the report.
“Consequently, the authorities revised the country’s annual oil production target from 98 million to 96 million tons, with output likely to fall short of the previous year’s level,” it added.