ASTANA – The emerging AI order may look bipolar from a distance, with the United States (U.S.) and China dominating the most advanced models, chips and computing infrastructure. But the discussion at Digital Bridge 2026 in Astana on Oct. 2 suggested a more complex picture: the technology may be concentrated, while its applications, standards and economic benefits are likely to spread far more widely.
Ian Slater, Executive Vice President at Mastercard. Photo credit: Digital Bridge 2026. Olaf J. Groth, founder and CEO of Cambrian Futures, described the emerging system as a “G2 plus X” order. “The G2 with regard to AI and cognitive technology is dominated by the U.S.
and China,” Groth said during the New AI World Order panel moderated by Financial Times China Technology Correspondent Eleanor Olcott. But the question, in his view, is who the “X” will be. “There’s lots of room for smaller economies, including, of course, middle powers, as well as some larger economies like India, Europe, to be the X,” he said, pointing to countries such as Kazakhstan, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia as economies that could play differentiated roles.
That distinction is important. The countries outside the two AI superpowers may not need to reproduce the entire technological stack to have a meaningful place in the new economy. Ya-Qin Zhang, founder of the Institute for AI Industry Research at Tsinghua University, noted that most countries should not try to build frontier models entirely on their own.
“I wouldn’t say it’s a good idea to develop a trillion-parameter super frontier model for every country, probably not for Kazakhstan,” Zhang said. Instead, he suggested countries focus on areas where they can build their own strengths while selectively using frontier models developed elsewhere.
His “TAP” model, including token, agent or application, and people, offered one way of looking at that division. Applications and people can be developed locally, while countries make choices around the infrastructure behind the models, including electricity, chips and access to frontier systems.
The emphasis on choice is important. Zhang said that countries should avoid becoming locked into a small number of technology providers and retain the ability to combine different models, infrastructure and applications. That also shifts the discussion away from the race to build the biggest model and toward the less visible infrastructure that lets AI function across economies.