ASTANA – Central Asia could unlock significant economic benefits from closer cooperation between its electricity systems, with a developed regional architecture potentially generating up to $640 million in annual gross benefits, according to a new report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB).
However, the region’s ability to realize this potential will depend less on building new power lines alone than on addressing grid bottlenecks, improving operational coordination and establishing reliable rules for cross-border electricity trade. The report, titled Energy Without Borders: The Architecture of Power Connectivity in Central Asia, prepared in cooperation with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), notes that the region is not starting its energy integration from scratch.
Yet what was designed for a different energy reality is increasingly struggling to accommodate rising demand, new renewable energy capacity and changing patterns of electricity consumption. The problem goes beyond generating capacity The Central Asia Power System (CAPS), which connects Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and southern Kazakhstan, had an installed capacity of 38.6 gigawatts as of Jan.
1, 2025. In 2024, the system generated 125.4 billion kilowatt-hours, while consumption totaled 142.2 billion kilowatt-hours. Regional electricity trade has recovered considerably, increasing from 2.5 billion kilowatt-hours in 2010 to 12.1 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024.
Nevertheless, its share of consumption remains below historical levels, at about 8.5% compared with 13% in 1990, and is about half the level observed in the European Union (EU), the report reads. The EDB identifies a distinction that is particularly important for understanding the region’s energy constraints: installed capacity does not necessarily translate into electricity that can actually be supplied.
During critical hours, generating capacity may be unavailable because of fuel shortages, hydrological limitations, equipment conditions, thermal power plants operating in cold reserve or insufficient transmission capacity. Around 6.6 gigawatts of capacity was unavailable for various reasons during the 2024 annual peak, illustrating why the region cannot rely on installed generation figures alone when assessing its energy security.
Transmission infrastructure presents another constraint. During the 2024-2025 winter operating period, actual electricity flows on several monitored transmission interfaces exceeded allowable levels, with the actual-to-permissible ratio ranging from 102% to 123%.
In Kazakhstan, the North-South transit corridor operated at 2,395 megawatts against an allowable 2,100 megawatts, or 114% of its permissible level. The Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan interface also recorded flows of 1,600 megawatts against allowable levels of 1,100-1,300 megawatts.
“Physical interconnection does not equal commercially available transmission capacity,” the report emphasizes, explaining that a power line between two systems does not automatically mean additional electricity can be transmitted safely or commercially at any given moment.
For regional electricity trade to expand, transmission capacity must be assessed against stability requirements, voltage conditions, emergency protection systems and existing power schedules. Why Kazakhstan’s North-South Corridor matters