ASTANA — Leaders of the five Caspian states are set to meet Oct. 9 in Turkmenistan’s Avaza National Tourist Zone for a summit focused on the sea’s mounting environmental challenges, as declining water levels increasingly intersect with transport, infrastructure and regional economic interests.
The Caspian Environmental Summit comes amid efforts to turn years of scientific warnings and regional dialogue into coordinated policies. Experts say its significance will depend not only on the issues leaders raise, but on whether the meeting strengthens mechanisms for monitoring, adaptation and cooperation among Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan.
The summit is part of a broader series of high-level events in Avaza on Oct. 7-9, including meetings of Caspian states’ environmental ministers, the heads of state of Central Asia and Azerbaijan, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Heads of State.
Falling waters raise the political stakes The scale of the Caspian’s decline is already visible along Kazakhstan’s coast. In a comment for this story, Zamira Zholdaskyzy, a chief expert at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS), said observations by Kazhydromet, Kazakhstan’s national hydrometeorological service, show the sea level fell by 1.76 meters between 2005 and 2022, while its water surface contracted by more than 26,000 square kilometers.
Approximately half of the lost area was in Kazakhstan’s part of the Northern Caspian, where the shoreline retreated by more than 25 kilometers in some areas. Zamira Zholdaskyzy, chief expert at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS). Photo credit: Zholdaskyzy’s personal archives “The central issues on the shared environmental agenda of the Caspian states are changes in the sea level, biodiversity conservation, the quality of the marine environment and the condition of coastal areas.
These issues are closely interconnected, as changes in the water balance affect the coastline and natural habitats, as well as the operation of ports, water intakes and other infrastructure. Of particular importance is the conservation of the Caspian seal, sturgeon and wetlands that support the sea’s biodiversity,” Zholdaskyzy told The Astana Times.
Scientists attribute the decline to a combination of factors. Zholdaskyzy said research cited by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the World Bank points to increased evaporation amid rising air and water temperatures as the leading contributor in recent decades, alongside changes in precipitation and river flows.
The Volga accounts for approximately 80% of river inflow into the Caspian, while irrigation, industrial use and municipal water consumption across the wider basin also affect the amount reaching the sea. The uncertainty surrounding the relative contribution of these factors makes shared monitoring particularly important.
“Climate trends cannot be changed through the efforts of one region alone. At the same time, the Caspian states can achieve tangible results in water use and scientific cooperation. This includes joint monitoring, improving water-use efficiency, particularly in agriculture, coordinating water releases during spawning periods and conducting joint risk assessments,” said Zholdaskyzy.