The share of Azerbaijan’s non-oil and gas sector in GDP is projected to increase significantly from 2027 through 2030, Trend reports. This is reflected in the Statement on the Initial Indicators of the State and Consolidated Budgets for 2027 released by Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Finance.
According to the statement, the baseline scenario assumes an average annual export price of $65 per barrel of oil in 2027–2030. Azerbaijan’s GDP is projected to reach 141 billion manat ($82.9 billion) by the end of 2027, of which 109.1 billion manat ($64.2 billion) will account for non-oil and gas GDP.
Based on these figures, the share of the non-oil and gas sector in GDP will stand at about 77.4% that year. By the end of the forecast period, in 2030, the country’s GDP is expected to reach 169.1 billion manat ($99.5 billion), while non-oil and gas GDP is projected at 138.6 billion manat ($81.5 billion).
Thus, the share of the non-oil and gas sector in GDP is projected to rise to 82% in 2030, an increase of about 4.6 percentage points compared with 2027. The statement notes that real GDP growth in Azerbaijan is projected to average 3.3% annually over the medium term, while real growth in non-oil and gas GDP is expected to average 4.4%.
Thus, growth in the non-oil and gas sector is expected to outpace overall economic growth, accompanied by a greater role for the non-oil sector in the structure of economic growth in the coming years. According to a chart included in the statement, real GDP growth is projected at 1.4% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, 2.7% in 2027, 2.6% in 2028, 4.2% in 2029 and 3.6% in 2030.
Growth in the non-oil and gas sector is expected to stand at 2.7% in 2025, 3.1% in 2026, 4.4% in both 2027 and 2028, 4.3% in 2029 and 4.5% in 2030. At the same time, the oil and gas sector is projected to contract by 1.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 3.5% in 2028 and 4% in 2029.
In 2030, real growth in the oil and gas sector is expected to be zero. Thus, the non-oil and gas sector is projected to strengthen its position in 2027–2030, both in terms of real growth and its share of GDP. During this period, its share of GDP is expected to increase from 77.4% to 82%.
Earlier, it was reported Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan would resume passenger ferry services on the Caspian Sea.