ASTANA — The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its base rate at 18.0% per annum, with a corridor of plus or minus 1 percentage point, according to the bank’s statement released on April 24. Annual inflation slowed to 11.0% in March from 11.7% in February. Food inflation eased to 11.7% from 12.7%, non-food inflation to 11.3% from 11.6%, and services inflation to 10.0% from 10.8%.
Monthly inflation fell to 0.6% in March from 1.1% in February. Core and seasonally adjusted indicators also slowed. Still, both remain above levels consistent with the 5% inflation target, signaling continued underlying pressure in the economy. Inflation expectations remain elevated.
Households expect inflation at 14.6% over the next year, up from 13.7%, while professional market participants continue to project 10.0% for 2026. Externally, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed up global prices for energy, food and fertilizers, increasing inflationary pressures across several economies and raising the risk of more expensive imports for Kazakhstan.
Preliminary data show the economy grew by 3.0% year-on-year in January–March 2026. Despite weaker performance in the oil sector, overall growth remains resilient, supported by strong activity in construction, transport, manufacturing and trade. The bank warned that pro-inflationary risks remain tilted to the upside.
Key concerns include external price pressures linked to geopolitical developments, as well as the possible resumption of increases in regulated tariffs for utilities and fuel after the moratorium ends. Additional risks stem from second-round effects of higher administered prices, including rising costs for businesses, and uncertainty about how companies will adapt to tax changes.
At the same time, current disinflationary trends are supported by gradually normalizing consumer demand and tighter financial conditions, including measures to absorb excess liquidity such as higher reserve requirements and sterilization operations. A stronger tenge has also helped ease inflation.
The bank stressed that the disinflation trend still needs to be firmly anchored before any shift toward monetary easing. This will depend in part on how the economy adjusts to renewed tariff reforms and a possible increase in quasi-fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year, as well as on external economic conditions.
The National Bank said it will continue to assess inflation dynamics, domestic demand, fiscal consolidation and external risks. If current trends hold and no new shocks emerge, it may consider lowering the base rate in future decisions.The next base rate decision is scheduled for June.